Ecothought
28Feb/101

Complexity and Complex Systems

In our work we frequently refer to undertaking analysis of complex systems, or reducing complexity in order to under understand how a given situation might be better understood or a solution developed to a complex problem. What do we mean though when we talk about a complex system or complexity analysis? This will be the first in a series of blogs about the concepts of complexity and the conduct of analysis in complex systems. The discussion is not intended to be authoritative in any way. It is simply an opportunity to consider  complexity and, perhaps, take some little steps towards understanding complexity and complex systems and their importance in human design.

Complexity - What is It?

It is probably easiest to start by stating what complexity is NOT.  The most certain thing to state up front is that complexity is NOT chaos. Chaos theory has its roots in mathematics, and anyone who wants to delve into the beauty of chaos theory is pointed to the work of Henri Poincaré, James Gleick and others. Personally I find the beauty and wonder of a Mandelbrot set a delight to explore. But chaos is NOT complexity.  There is a linkage between the concepts however, which we will explore in a later post.

13Feb/100

Transformation and Inflection Points

 

Transformation and Spirituality

Jonas Salk, the medical pioneer who developed the vaccine for polio went on to undertake significant research into the cycle of existence for various species. In his work he concluded that there were three very distinct patterns to the lifecycle of any species.  In brief they were:

•             Following long and stable growth, the rate of growth suddenly spurts upward, after which the species ceases to exist;

•             Growth accelerates, then rapidly declines, then accelerates, then declines again, fluctuating throughout its entire existence;

•             A long period of steady growth is maintained, then spikes upward and then hits a plateau on which it maintains itself from then on (this is the normal pattern for species which survive).

In the third type of transformation, the species reaches a “point of inflection” which divides the entire mode of the species’ existence into two distinct epochs. At the point of inflection, a transformation is triggered in the existence of a species which creates the conditions conducive to the long term survival of the species. Salk concluded that the human species was entering the point of inflection and that there would have to be a significant shift in human values and modes of survival if the species was to continue to survive. Critical to this period was that Salk concluded that as a result of our work on genetics and other related fields we have reached a point where we can affect the genetic outcome, and closely aligned to this that we had reached a point where we could, through the application of human will, affect the outcome of our own evolution.

10Feb/101

A Heirarchy of Sustainability?

There is probably no modern issue more subject to misrepresentation, extremist views and non-scientific assertions than the problem of defining human sustainability (except perhaps the climate change issue). There is no doubt that the human species has reached the boundaries of the closed system known as the Earth's biosphere. However, finding long term solutions to the maintenance of human existence within this biosphere is not well served by taking non-scientific extreme positions which fail to take into account the closely linked considerations in creating a sustainable environment for future generations.

In considering the meaning of sustainability it is critical that we understand and model sustainability in terms of four main views:

  • Natural Sustainability (sustainability of the planetary biosphere);
  • Social Sustainability (the sustainability of social systems and structures which sustain human existence such as individual rights and responsibilities, and respecting the integrity of those constructs which maintain social resilience within the human collective)
  • Economic Sustainability (sustainability of economic mechanisms which form the basis for the ongoing development of the human enterprise)
  • Human Performance Sustainability (the creation and maintenance of built and natural environments which encourage and support the sustainable performance of human elements within the overall human enterprise (domestic / employment / recreation)